Unemployment now in double digits

indystar

November 07, 2009 by indystar | Staff

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Figures lead to question: How can you have a recovery without jobs?

The nation’s unemployment rate has hit double digits for the first time since 1983 — and is likely to go higher.

The 10.2 percent jobless rate for October shows the economy remains weak, even though it is growing. The rising jobless rate could threaten the recovery if it saps consumers’ confidence and makes them more cautious about spending as the holidays near.

The October unemployment rate — reflecting nearly 16 million jobless people — jumped from 9.8 percent in September, the Labor Department said Friday. The job losses occurred across most industries, from manufacturing to retail and financial.

October jobless numbers for Indiana will be released in a couple of weeks. In September, 9.6 percent of Indiana workers were unemployed.

Economists say the unemployment rate could surpass 10.5 percent next year because employers are reluctant to hire.

President Barack Obama called the new jobs report another illustration of why much more work is needed to spur business creation and consumer spending. Noting legislation he’s signing to provide additional unemployment benefits for laid-off workers, Obama said, “I will not rest until all Americans who want work can find work.”

The government’s monthly unemployment report is based on two surveys, one of households, one of companies’ payrolls. The household survey showed that about 558,000 more people were unemployed last month than in September, raising the total to 15.7 million. The company survey, however, showed only a third as many job losses — 190,000.

The company survey doesn’t count the self-employed and undercounts employees of small businesses. That’s why some analysts, like Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, say last month’s household survey could be an ominous sign.

Troubles for small businesses could have a disproportionate effect on the economy, because they account for about 60 percent of the nation’s jobs.

The 10.2 percent unemployment rate does not include people without jobs who have stopped looking for work or those who have settled for part-time jobs. Counting those people would put the unemployment rate at 17.5 percent.

“It’s not a good report,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for New York-based investment firm Miller Tabak&Co. “What we’re seeing is a validation of the idea that a jobless recovery is perfectly on track.”

Category: Business

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