Oscar Prognostications – - – 2009

While the country has been mired down on such trivial issues as the imminent collapse of our national economy, I think it is time that we focus on subjects that really matter. Thus, it is once again time to predict who is going to win at this year’s Oscar ceremony to be held this Sunday, February 22, 2009.

Category Winner

1. Best Motion Picture of the Year: “Slumdog Millionaire”

While a legitimate case can be made for either “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” or “Frost/Nixon,” the best film by any definition was “Slumdog Millionaire.” “Milk” may be more socially relevant, but nothing compared to the quality of Danny Boyle’s masterpiece.

2. Achievement in Directing: Danny Boyle

For the same reasons as stated above, no one is more deserving of this year’s award for best direction than Mr. Boyle. Clearly, it was no easy task to tell a story about a young Indian boy’s life using the questions and answers on a game show as a metaphor for his life experiences in the Mumbai slums. The only other directorial effort that even comes close is David Fincher’s “Benjamin Button,” but even it cannot match the emotional resonance of Mr. Boyle’s masterful work.

3. Performance by an actor in a leading role Sean Penn

Quite frankly, this is a difficult call, and any of the nominees could deservedly win. I loved Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor,” and Frank Langella brought Nixon to life in “Frost/Nixon.” Brad Pitt was wonderfully understated in “Benjamin Button,” and Mickey Rourke’s extraordinary performance in “The Wrestler” has already been recognized by the Golden Globes. However, not only was Penn magnificent as the late gay activist, but his role is the most socially relevant of any of the nominees. In the end, I think that will tilt this nomination to Mr. Penn.

4. Performance by an actress in a leading role Kate Winslet

It is ironic that I pick Ms. Winslet, as I truly don’t believe that this was her best personal performance this year, much less better than the gripping performances of Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” and Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married.” In my opinion, Ms. Winslet was far more powerful in “Revolutionary Road,” but I suppose that producer Harvey Weinstein (“The Reader”) still has incredible clout in Hollywood. In any event, my reasoning can be briefly outlined as follows:

You can eliminate Meryl Streep and Angelina Jolie immediately, because as good as both of them were on occasion, both of their performances were rather hammy and overstated.

In all honesty, I think that this award should go to either Anne Hathaway or Ms. Leo, and I’m strongly convinced that one of them will win if Ms. Winslet falls short. (My personal preference would be Ms. Leo, who commands the stage as a desperate mother trying to hold her family together during the holiday season after being abandoned by her loutish husband.)

However, the wonderful Ms. Winslet has been denied so many times that I think this year’s award goes to her, as rather undeserving as it is. On the other hand, let’s not fret too much, as the Oscars have a long history of giving makeup awards for wrongly denied actors.

Think of John Wayne winning for “True Grit” (1969); Paul Newman winning for “The Color of Money” (1986) and Rod Steiger winning for “In the Heat of the Night” (1967). None of those performances compared to their best work earlier in their career, but Hollywood found a way to belatedly correct its mistakes. I think they will do the same thing this year with Ms. Winslet.

5. Performance by an actor in a supporting role Heath Ledger

As wonderful as Michael Shannon was in the largely overlooked “Revolutionary Road,” this remains Mr. Ledger’s award. And please, let’s end the talk that he will win simply because of his untimely death. His performance as The Joker was one of the most commanding roles ever given on the screen, and this will serve as fitting epitaph for a talented actor who died way too soon.

6. Performance by an actress in a supporting role Viola Davis

While I thought “Doubt” was a movie that simply did not translate well from the stage, the performance of Ms. Davis dominated this movie and gave it its powerful emotional pull. If Ms. Davis doesn’t win, my guess would be that Penelope Cruz will be a popular pick for her portrayal of an unbalanced ex-wife with a uncontrollable urge to occasionally try and kill her wayward artist ex-husband, Javier Bardem, in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.”

7. Best animated feature film “Wall-E”

Really, nothing needs to be further said in this category. Along with “The Dark Knight,” “Wall-E” could have legitimately been nominated as one of the five best films of the year. It is simply a sublime movie experience.

8. Achievement in cinematography “Slumdog Millionaire”

While you could make a case for “Benjamin Button” or “The Dark Knight,” I believe that the magnificent shots of the Mumbai slums alone will win this award for Anthony Dod Mantle.

9. Achievement in costume design “The Duchess”

As I said in my original review, “The Duchess” is one of the great fashion shows ever filmed. The much-maligned “Australia” was a visual treat on many levels, including costume design, but I don’t see anyone beating “The Duchess” for this award.

10. Best documentary feature “Trouble the Water”

This is a qualified pick, as to my knowledge two of the nominees, “The Betrayal” and “The Garden,” have yet to be released here in Indianapolis. While I truly enjoyed Werner Herzog’s “Encounters at the End of the World,” I thought it was a bit slow in places. On the other hand, “Man on Wire” was brilliantly engaging, and I would not be surprised at all to see it get this award.

However, “Trouble the Water” is passionate, powerful and most importantly, politically relevant to our times, and I think that will lead to its win. After all, shouldn’t we all be encouraged to see what actually happened to the people in the 9th Ward of New Orleans when hurricane Katrina hit. (I also give the edge to “Trouble” because it has a strong political undercurrent concerning the woeful actions of the Bush Administration in response to this human disaster.)

11. Achievement in film editing “Slumdog Millionaire”

I think the only other nominated film that can give “Slumdog” a run in this category is “Benjamin Button.” However, the editing required to blend in three concurrent stories (the game show, multiple flashback episodes and the interrogation/torture scene at the police station) was so exquisitely pulled off that I truly believe “Slumdog” will carry this category also.

12. Achievement in makeup “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Yes, “Hellboy II” and “The Dark Knight” are deservedly nominated, particularly in regard to Heath Ledger’s makeup in the latter. However, the makeup required as Brad Pitt aged backward was so impressive that I believe it will be recognized here.

13. Achievement in music written for motion pictures “Slumdog Millionaire”

This is a brilliant score, and A.R. Rahman stands at a level by himself.

14. Achievement in sound editing “The Dark Knight”

This superlative film is simply too good to be shut out, and this is one of the categories that I believe it will win. On the other hand, “Iron Man” could give it a run for its money, but I doubt it.

15. Achievement in visual effects “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Come on, Brad Pitt aging backwards? Enough said.

16. Adapted screenplay “Slumdog Millionaire”

I truly hate to see the absolutely wonderful “Frost/Nixon” potentially shut out from any award, but this is “Slumdog’s” year.

17. Original screenplay “Milk”

My admiration for “Wall-E” is second to none, and “Frozen River” is one of those brilliant independent films with a subject matter that the principal studios will not touch. However, I think that “Frozen River,” like “The Visitor,” will likely dominate the small but meaningful award ceremonies like the “Spirit Awards” and probably not threaten the more socially meaningful “Milk.”

I have said before that “Milk” had its deficiencies, particularly in spending so much time with the star’s rather pedestrian personal relationship, but it has far too much meaning concerning what is going on in California in particular and our country in general to fall short in this category. After all, Oscar, like everyone else, should be able to feel good about itself!

18. Achievement in sound mixing “The Dark Knight”

Quite frankly, I had originally written in “Benjamin Button” in this category, as I felt that the sound demands of many of the intricately related scenes made it a deserving winner. However, upon reflection, I can’t truly discern a rational reason why “The Dark Knight” should win for “sound editing” and not for “sound mixing.” Thus, based on the type of deductive reasoning that would have made Einstein proud, I’m picking “The Dark Knight” in this category also. (After all, think of the sounds that were required for Batman’s confrontation with The Joker in the police interrogation room alone. And that was just one small moment in this great film.)

19. Achievement in art direction “The Duchess”

For the same reasons as stated above concerning the category of costume design, I believe “The Duchess” will win this award also. However, this is an extraordinarily difficult pick for an amateur like myself, and it wouldn’t surprise me if either “Benjamin Button” or “Revolutionary Road” snuck in and won this.

20. Achievement in music written for motion pictures “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog”
(Original song)

This is the wonderful song that closed “Slumdog,” and it was a beautifully fitting climax for this glorious film. While I would like to see Peter Gabriel be recognized for his “Down to Earth” from “Wall-E,” “Slumdog” was magical for multiple reasons, not the least of which was its music.

21. Best foreign language film of the year “The Class” or “Waltz with Bashir”

Based on the previews that I have seen and the reviews that I have read, I would be extraordinarily surprised if one of these two films didn’t win in this category. However, since our wonderful city has yet to bring any of the nominated films into our theaters, we lovers of the cinema are forced to make a prediction without having the opportunity to see any of these foreign films. What a gigantic pity, and what an artistic slam at our community.

22. Best documentary short subject
Best animated short film Who knows since none of them have
Best live action short film found their way to Indianapolis.

While these films may have made it here and I simply was unaware of it, why can’t some institution like the Art Museum take the time to show these little films? Again, we are artistically poorer as a community as a result.