If John Mellencamp thinks his third time as a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame nominee will be the charm, he's not sharing that notion with the public.

The Hoosier rock star declined to comment when the Hall revealed this year's official contenders for induction, and Mellencamp isn't offering interviews to promote his fall tour -- which began Friday in Terre Haute and will make a visit to Conseco Fieldhouse Saturday.

In 2003, his first year as a nominee, Mellencamp said musicians on good terms with Rolling Stone magazine publisher Jann Wenner usually make it into the Hall. Mellencamp also said he didn't want to be inducted before one of his early-career influences, Bob Seger.

Seger punched his ticket to Cleveland (home of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame since it opened in 1995) three years ago.

Mellencamp didn't make it in 2003 or in 2005, his second year as a nominee.

This year's nominees are Mellencamp, Madonna, the Beastie Boys, Chic, the Dave Clark Five, Donna Summer, Leonard Cohen, the Ventures and Afrika Bambaataa.

A class of five inductees -- selected by musicians, industry professionals and journalists -- will be announced in January.

Predictions about who will or won't make it into the Hall can be found at www.futurerockhall.com. Neil Walls, who founded the site 18 months ago, says he likes Mellencamp's chances.

"He looks like a favorite," Walls says. "With the diversity of genres represented this year, he stands out as a more traditional rocker. That may appeal to a lot of the voters."

Among 1,500 anonymous and informal ballots cast at Futurerockhall.com, Mellencamp has collected more votes than any other nominee.

Indiana University professor Glenn Gass says Mellencamp's induction is overdue, yet he's not surprised by the delay. "I think it's an echo of the hard time he had getting accepted to begin with," says Gass, who teaches a series of courses on the history of rock 'n' roll and popular music. "New York 'Village Voice'-type people had a hard time accepting that something unique and of real value could come out of Indiana. They used to say that about things from Liverpool, too."

According to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, criteria for induction include "the influence and significance" of an artist's contributions to the development and perpetuation of rock 'n' roll.

To gauge the stature of Mellencamp's career in five categories, The Star recently surveyed Walls, Gass and two on-air personalities from esteemed Chicago rock radio station WXRT:

Songs

There's a favorable consensus regarding Mellencamp's string of hit singles in the 1980s.

"Jack & Diane," "Pink Houses," "Authority Song," "Lonely Ol' Night," "Small Town," "Rain on the Scarecrow," "Cherry Bomb" and "Paper in Fire" are just some of the tunes that have endured.

"There's probably a half-dozen songs that are considered classic American rock songs at this point," Walls says.

WXRT's Marty Lennartz characterizes Mellencamp as a populist artist who connects with his fans.

"Jack and Diane are two people, and they're people in his audience," Lennartz says.

Longevity

When 1970s albums "Chestnut Street Incident" and "The Kid Inside" flopped as commercial and critical efforts, "Johnny Cougar" probably couldn't imagine what he'd be doing in 2007. A few of this year's highlights: Celebrating Independence Day with the Boston Pops Orchestra, recording an album with A-list producer T-Bone Burnett and holding court with the Dalai Lama.

Gass says pride has been an ally to the 56-year-old native of Seymour, Ind.

"His role models are people like Bob Dylan and Neil Young," Gass says. "They've proven it's a man's work to be a rock writer and singer. It should sustain over your life, whether your audience shrinks a little or comes back or whatever it does. You're an artist. You have a responsibility to create and be true to your muse."

WXRT's Frank E. Lee uses the terms sturdy, moving and powerful to describe Mellencamp's music.

"He's had four or five top-notch albums, which is almost as many as any artist gets, really," Lee says. "Nobody's going to be at the top of their game in terms of writing songs for the course of their entire career. But you can hit creative spurts, and I think John Mellencamp's run can hold up there with most people."

Recent work

If there's a liability on Mellencamp's resume, it's an absence of hit songs during the past decade. His most recent mainstream smash was a cover of Van Morrison's "Wild Night" that reached No. 3 in 1994.

"Is he relevant to teenagers today? Probably not," Web site owner Walls says. "But he's managed to stay current and socially relevant."

Gass says Mellencamp grew up in a time when activism was "assumed and noble."

The singer performs at Farm Aid benefit concerts every year; he's been an outspoken critic of U.S. policy in Iraq since 2003; and he unveiled a song earlier this month that addresses racism in the wake of a Jena, La., case in which six black high school students were charged with attempted murder in the beating of a white student.

"I think the social conscience of rock 'n' roll has been waylaid," Gass says. "Frankly, there aren't enough 20-year-olds out there who are picking up the mantle of being a spokesman. It's a little sad that we still have to look to the baby boomers, basically."

In January, Mellencamp issued his "Freedom's Road" album and accompanying single "Our Country," a track licensed by Chevrolet that's turned off some listeners because of advertising saturation that continues today.

Mellencamp's upcoming album won't focus on the acoustic old-time music that Burnett helped revitalize with soundtrack projects "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" and "Cold Mountain."

In a short interview, given when he visited Indianapolis for the Colts' season-opening game in September, the singer promised a rock record.

"I wrote songs that are in the tradition of American songs -- songs about our life, misery and despair," Mellencamp said with a laugh.

Influence

WXRT's Lee says Mellencamp's impact on musical trends or other artists is limited because his work "is so traditional."

Lennartz, meanwhile, upholds Mellencamp's transition from manufactured pop entity in the 1970s to today's significant singer-songwriter as an admirable legacy.

"He was able to reclaim his career, his persona, himself," Lennartz says.

In terms of musical influence, Mellencamp's descendents work in Nashville -- not necessarily in New York or Los Angeles.

In 2005, country star Keith Urban told The Star that Mellencamp album "The Lonesome Jubilee" was a "life-changing moment."

"There's this guy with a rock band, but he's got fiddle and accordion and acoustic guitar," Urban said. "He's singing real lyrics about real people and real things. I saw that you could do it all and make your own music. It wasn't like I watched John and said, 'OK, I'm going to do that.' It was the thought of gathering everything that you love and putting it all together."

Kenny Chesney, one of the biggest concert draws regardless of genre, worked with Mellencamp on a 2003 episode of the "Crossroads" series on cable television network CMT.

"Country is generating the new rock stars," Walls says. "There aren't many solo rockers that can sell concert tickets the way Kenny Chesney can."

Colleagues

If a man is measured by the company he keeps, Mellencamp stands tall when associating with Farm Aid co-founders Neil Young and Willie Nelson, as well as Dave Matthews, who joined the pro-farmer initiative's board of directors in 2001.

"I think being part of a popular cause is always helpful to your career, especially in terms of the music-making machinery," WXRT's Lee says of Mellencamp's link to Farm Aid, which began in 1985.

In 2000, Mellencamp shared his appreciation of the Lovin' Spoonful when delivering the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction speech for the 1960s band.

"He's no stranger to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame," Walls says of Mellencamp. "That's always a good sign when they're willing to offer him a forum during the actual ceremony."

Lacking the reputation !of a jet-setter eager to rub shoulders with other celebrities, Mellencamp may be best known as the rock star who stayed put in Indiana.

"When you're with a bunch of superstars, then you're a superstar," Gass says. "That's your identity. I don't think he's that comfortable with that identity."