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Today:
Here are my Oscar picks/predictions...
Posted: Feb 21, 2008 in Culture, Movies, TV and Celebrities
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...just in time for Sunday's telecast.
Unlike those other wimps in the prognostication business, I don't stick to just the "major" categories. Anybody can call Javier Bardem this year, but who has the stones to make a pick for sound editing?
Let's hear yours.
BEST PICTURE
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: Michael Clayton
My take: Juno could sneak in here as the one non-depressing nominee. The Kite Runner was the best movie of the year; Clayton the best of those nominated.
BEST ACTRESS:
Will win: Julie Christie
Should win: Marion Cotillard
My take: Nobody seems to notice that Christie's is actually a supporting performance. Gordon Pinsent is the real star of "Away from Her." Cotillard transformed before our eyes.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
My take: The one mortal lock this year. No other performance was even close.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will win: Ruby Dee
Should win: Tilda Swinton
My take: Dee is the sentimental favorite in a wide-open category, despite being the least-deserving nominee (because of her very limited screen time). Swinton was terrific as the corporate shill with an empty soul. Amy Ryan was also great in two different movies this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will win: Javier Bardem
Should win: Tom Wilkinson
My take: Five absolutely terrific performances, but Bardem has all the momentum. Wilkinson was mesmerizing as an attorney who only finds his moral center by losing his mind.
DIRECTOR:
Will win: The brothers Coen
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson
My take: I'm a huge Coen brothers fan, but I was underwhelmed by "No Country." Anderson and Julian Schnabel had very strong, very personal visions that they masterfully translated to the screen.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Will win: Juno
Should win: The Savages
My take: I've indicated elsewhere my inability to get past the artifice of Diablo Cody's screenplay. Savages took a very mundane story and made it sing with ironic humor.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: There Will Be Blood
My take: Much like with "Adaptation," "Blood" used the source text as a mere jumping-off point for a wholly original and engaging narrative.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Will win: No End in Sight
DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
Will win: Sari's Mother
ANIMATED FEATURE:
Will win: Ratatouille
Should win: Ratatouille
My take: Persepolis is vastly overrated.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: Mongol
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: There Will Be Blood
ART DIRECTION
Will win: Atonement
Should win: Sweeney Todd
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Will win: My Love
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Will win: The Mozart of Pickpockets
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: The Golden Compass
Should win: The Golden Compass
COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Atonement
Should win: Sweeney Todd
FILM EDITING
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
SOUND MIXING
Will win: No Country for Old Men
SOUND EDITING
Will win: No Country for Old Men
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Atonement
ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: "That's How You Know"
Should win: "Raise It Up"
MAKEUP
Will win: La Vie En Rose
Should win: La Vie En Rose
Amen to the Gordon Pinset and Ruby Dee comments, brother. Dee is a blatantly sentimental choice. She was in the film for 5 minutes and really I thought she mailed it in other than that one speech she had. I thought the moment when Denzel gave her the house was less than great acting on her part.
We'll have to compare picks when I make mine today or tomorrow. :)
The breakdown between what constitutes a leading vs. supporting performance is an old one. Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor for "Silence of the Lambs" with about 12-15 minutes of screen time. For "Pulp Fiction," John Travolta got a Best Actor nod while Sam Jackson got Supporting Actor despite roughly similar screen time and lines.
The craziest one I recall is Jake Gyllenhaal getting nominated in the supporting category for "Brokeback Mountain" while Heath Ledger was in the lead category. Ledger's performance resonated more, but there's no way you could claim those were anything less than co-equal parts.
In this year's contest, Casey Affleck had the lead role in "Assassination of Jesse James" while Brad Pitt was the supporting. But Pitt's a huge star while Casey was that guy in the background of the "Ocean's" movies.
Everyone talks about Julie Christie's performance in "Away from Her" -- and she is great in it, no question -- but if you pay attention to the narrative, it's a story about a man watching his relationship with his wife drift due to dementia. In grammatical terms, he's the subject and she's the object. If it was a movie about a woman watching her husband drift away, it would've been called "Away from Him."
Postmortem:
I got 10 out of 24 right. Not exactly my best showing. I usually get in the mid- to high teens. But who knew "Bourne Ultimatum" would win three Oscars, more than "There Will Be Blood"?
I did get all but two of the major categories, whiffing on both leading and supporting actress. In my defense, those were both wide-open this year. And I'm happy to say in each case my preferred pick won out over my predicted pick -- a nice way to lose.
How did you do?
8 of 20 for me (I abstained from categories like documentary short, foreign language film, and others that I had no knowledge about).
I too got leading and supporting actress wrong, and while Bardem was the favorite for supporting actor, I sat there before they read his name and thought any one of them would be wholly deserving of the award.
Christopher, so as not to search through the site can you tell me what you liked so much about Michael Clayton? i cannot tell you how much i disliked it and felt it was just a combination of so many past films. just felt so unoriginal to me. that said, i'm clearly in the minority.
Christopher, so as not to search through the site can you tell me what you ...
I guess I didn't see it as unoriginal. There have been a few lawyers-expose-corporate-corruption flicks like "Rainmaker," but not enough to constitute an overload.
It's a fairly conventional movie, narratively speaking, but executed just about flawlessly, imho. Clooney was great as the soulless, faceless drone who's gotten really good at doing something he doesn't want to do. He wants to do the right thing, but he's hamstrung by his position. That's a predicament a lot of people can identify with nowadays.
And Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson were the two knock-out supporting performances of the year. Surprised, but very glad, that Swinton won the statue.
Harrowing theme, great acting, subtle yet masterful direction -- what more can you ask for?
Does anybody else out there have an Oscar winner that they just hate, hate, hated (to paraphrase Roger Ebert)?