For what it is worth, I thought I would give all of you my preliminary analysis concerning certain categories in this year's Oscar race.

BEST PICTURE & BEST DIRECTOR - No County for Old Men & The Coen Brothers

Simply put, I truly believe that this will be a Coen Brothers' year. I love "Michael Clayton" for a host of reasons. And while I have fully set out my sentimental attachment to "Juno", there simply was no better movie this year than "No Country for Old Men." It is raw, quirky, witty, uber violent and terribly original. My crystal ball sees this stunning picture winning the Oscar and the Coen boys getting the nod for best director.

BEST ACTOR - Daniel Day Lewis

If there is an upset here, I would like to think it would be Viggo Mortensen for the under appreciated "Eastern Promises." However, I can't foresee anyone sneaking by Mr. Day-Lewis, particularly given the fact that he was previously robbed in this category in 2002 by Adrien Brody ("The Pianist") despite his more deserving turn as Bill the Butcher in "Gangs of New York." (Johnny Depp is Johnny Depp . . . . isn't that reward enough?)

Regardless of what any of you thought of "There Will Be Blood" as a film, there simply are performances every now and then that dominate the competition. Like Charlize Theron in "Monster" (2003), Helen Mirren in "The Queen" (2006) and Forest Whitaker in "The Last King of Scotland" (2006), Day-Lewis's performance leaves everyone a distant second.

BEST ACTRESS - Julie Christie

First of all, you can quickly eliminate Cate Blanchett. As brilliant as her career has been, there is no way that her performance in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" rated this nomination.

Additionally, Laura Linney may be the most talented actress working today who continually flies under the radar screen. I truly loved her in "The Savages", but I see her award being the nomination itself.

Thus, and as I noted in my earlier review entitled "Juno Revisited", that leaves a three-way race between Marion Cotillard for "La Vie en Rose", Ellen Page for "Juno" and Julie Christie for "Away from Her." Any of those three could win and no one could possibly complain.

However, I simply have to believe that Ms. Christie's heartbreaking turn as a woman slipping into the dementia of Alzheimers will be awarded the big prize. In addition, this performance has enormous social significance, particularly given the recent story of former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's husband going through much the same thing in a nursing home as did Ms. Christie.

Finally, it cannot be denied that Hollywood loves a stirring performance by a beautiful actress in a dramatic role who has the courage to intentionally dumb down her beauty. One has to go no further than Nicole Kidman in "The Hours" (2002) and again Ms. Theron in the above mentioned "Monster."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Javier Bardem

This is a traditionally tough call, and it is no different for 2007. From a sentimental standpoint, I would like to see the beloved Hal Holbrook win for his heartbreaking turn as the lonely old man who befriends Emile Hirsch near the end of Sean Penn's unjustly ignored "Into the Wild." Holbrook, age 82, has never been nominated before, and it would be great to see him giving an acceptance speech. However, I rationally don't see that happening.

More to the point, I can't fathom how the Academy will not recognize Javier Bardem for his mesmerizing role as the psychopathic hit-man in "No Country for Old Men." As sensational as Philip Seymour Hoffman and Tom Wilkinson are in "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Michael Clayton" respectively, Bardem dominates the screen as few villains have in the history of film. The award should be his.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -

I'm going to reserve judgment on this pick and reflect on it a bit more. I loved all five actresses, and I'm not sure if there is a rational way to pick a favorite.

Like Hal Holbrook, Ruby Dee (age 83) has to be the sentimental favorite for her small but stirring role as Denzel Washington's mother in "American Gangster." As undeserving as Ms. Blanchett is for the best actress award in "Elizabeth", she may have given the most compelling performance by any actress this year for her incredible turn as "Bob Dylan" in "I'm Not There."

"Atonement" was a tremendously moving film, and that was largely due to the convincing portrayal of the young teenage accuser played by Saoirse Ronan.

On the other hand, how can you ignore Amy Ryan for her dominating performance as the neglectful, alcoholic, drug addicted mother whose child is kidnapped in "Gone Baby Gone?"

Finally, however, there is the chilling performance of Tilda Swinton as the corporate lawyer increasingly corrupted by her own attempts to serve her employer in "Michael Clayton." While I will repeat that I want to refrain from a final pick for now, given the quality of "Michael Clayton" combined with Ms. Swinton's versatility as an actress over the years ["Orlando" 1993; "The Deep End" (2002); "Adaptation" (2002); "Constantine" (2005); and "Narnia" (2005)], I'm leaning towards her in this category.

BEST ANIMATED FILM - Ratatouille

I have to pick "Ratatouille" even though the much acclaimed "Persepolis" has yet to be released here in Indianapolis. However, "Persepolis" has to be incredible beyond words to deny this award to "Ratatouille." The fact is that "Ratatouille" is really an adult film masquerading as a child's feature, and it should bring its creator, Brad Bird, another Oscar.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - No End In Sight

While three of the five films have not reached Indianapolis as of the date of my column, this has to be a dogfight between "No End In Sight" and Michael Moore's splendid "Sicko." Both are timely and socially relevant. However, given the fact that Moore has won before, not to mention his continuing notoriety, I have to go with "No End In Sight." By exposing the Iraqi debacle through interviews from the inside players who actually helped form and implement this disastrous war, I can't see this falling short of the top award.

MUSIC (SONG) - Falling Slowly from "Once"

While I know this extraordinary song from "Once" has stiff competition, particularly from the three songs from the enchanting "Enchanted", I'm picking it to win because I want it to win! Furthermore, I can't wait to see Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova sing it live.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) - Diablo Cody for "Juno"

Quite frankly, I consider this award to be a certainty. Not only is Ms. Cody entirely deserving, but it would be a fitting tribute in a category that sees two other women (Nancy Oliver for "Lars and the Real Girl" and Tamara Jenkins for "The Savages") also nominated. The glass ceiling may not be completely broken in Hollywood, but at least it has sustained a few significant cracks.

Beyond that, "Juno" was simply the most witty, clever, and socially relevant film of the year, and that is due completely to the genius of Ms. Cody.

VISUAL EFFECTS - Transformers

In a year where many films took special effects to new heights, "Transformers" clearly dominated the field. The special effects were as stunning as they were eye-popping, and this award would be richly deserved.

MAKE-UP - La Vie en Rose

First of all, if "Norbit" wins for anything, I'm going back to my real job as a criminal defense lawyer. (O.K., so I never left!) More seriously, Ms. Cotillard's transformation as Edith Piaf from a young woman to a psychologically damaged, aging singer was made all the more compelling because of the incredibly realistic job done with her make-up. It's hard for me to see this award going to anyone but this picture.
ART DIRECTION - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Quite frankly, my uneducated guess in this category is undoubtedly no better than anyone else's projection. While the work done in "Atonement" and "There Will Be Blood" will make them strong contenders, the merging of song with the orgy of blood in "Sweeney Todd" will likely earn this award.

COSTUME DESIGN - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

First of all, it is hard for me not to pick "Atonement" in this category, particularly given the dress that Keira Knightley was wearing when she was making love to James McAvoy in that memorable library scene. On or off of her, it was stunning. However, did any costumes really compare to "Sweeney Todd"? I don't think so, and that's why I think it will gain this award also.

CINEMATOGRAPHY - There Will Be Blood

This is another borderline impossible call, but I have to come down on the side of "There Will Be Blood" for several reasons.

First of all, this was too significant a movie not to be recognized for multiple awards. Secondly, I think the powerful landscapes reflected in the oil drilling sequences will carry this award over the equally effective desert shots in "No Country." I don't think that "There Will Be Blood" was close to the best picture of the year, but I do believe it was from a cinematography standpoint.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM -

I remain as baffled as I am angry that none of the five nominated films in this category have been released in Indianapolis. Last year, if you will recall, four of the five films in this category had played in Indy by the time of the Academy Awards, the irony being that the single exception was the eventual winner, "The Lives of Others."

This failure to exhibit these films is a black eye on Landmark Cinema at Keystone at Crossing, particularly given its description as an independent movie chain. Where are these films, and why aren't they playing on at least one of the screens at either the Regal, AMC or Kerasotes theaters? This gives our city a cultural black eye.

SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING - Transformers

Along with my expectation that "Transformers" will win the special effects Oscar, I don't think any other film came close in these two categories. This was simply a very good movie, as shocking as it is to make that statement, and that was largely due to its visual effects accompanied by the sound mixing and editing.

I know there are other categories, but I probably have bored you long enough with this article. I'll address those as we get closer to the Oscar ceremony itself.