Retail sales spark rally

indystar

November 17, 2009 by indystar | Staff

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Performance beats analysts’ October projections; major stock indexes reach 13-month highs

NEW YORK — Investors kept the stock market’s upward momentum going Monday, sending shares sharply higher after retail sales rebounded more than expected in October and the dollar extended its slide.

Major stock indexes rose more than 1 percent to 13-month highs, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which jumped 136 points. The Standard&Poor’s 500 index closed above the 1,100 mark for the first time in more than a year.

The weaker dollar lifted gold to a record and pumped up prices of other commodities, including oil. That, in turn, helped shares of energy and materials companies.

Stocks got another boost after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reaffirmed in a midday speech that the central bank would hold interest rates at record-low levels for an “extended period,” and that he didn’t see signs that the money being pumped into the economy by the government was creating speculative bubbles. Bond prices rose after Bernanke said inflation appeared contained.

Some analysts have cautioned that the surge in stocks, which has been hastened by the falling dollar, might not be justified by the still-struggling economy. In fact, they say some investors might misread the big advance in stocks as a sign that the economy is stronger than it actually is.

The market’s own dynamics fed some of the day’s gains.

Dan Deming, a trader with Stutland Equities, said the S&P 500’s move above 1,100 after a month of retreating when it hit that level gave some investors a shot of confidence and led to short-covering, which tends to amplify gains in the market. Short-covering occurs when investors have to buy stock after having earlier sold borrowed shares in a bet they would fall.

“We’re breaking through the 1,100 mark, which is psychologically significant, and the market is seeing a little pop from that,” Deming said.

Stocks began rising from the start after the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 1.4 percent in October, nearly double the increase forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters. It was a sharp rebound after a 2.3 percent drop in September.

Excluding the gain from autos, however, sales rose just 0.2 percent, half of what economists predicted.

The big swing in overall activity reflects the recent roller-coaster ride for auto sales. New car sales surged in August as shoppers rushed to take advantage of the government’s Cash for Clunkers sales incentives before they expired at the end of the month. Sales plunged in September.

For October, auto sales jumped 7.4 percent, recouping about half of the 14.3 percent drop in September. Automakers already reported that their sales rebounded last month to an annual rate of 10.5 million units, from 9.2 million in September.

Sales also fell 0.8 percent at furniture stores and 0.6 percent at electronics and appliance stores. Sales were flat at gasoline service stations and posted a modest 0.2 percent rise at grocery stores.

Department store sales also grew 0.3 percent, although the broader category that includes such big retail chains as Wal-Mart and Target posted a 0.8 percent rise. Analysts think that in the current hard times many shoppers are relying more heavily on discount stores.

The Dow advanced 136.49, or 1.3 percent, to 10,406.96 after rising nearly 164 points.

The broader S&P 500 index rose 15.82, or 1.5 percent, to 1,109.30. It has hovered around the 1,100 mark for a month but hadn’t closed above it since October of last year. The index first finished above 1,100 more than a decade ago, in March 1998.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 29.97, or 1.4 percent, to 2,197.85.

Category: Business

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